How to Estimate Preference Share From Conjoint Results
Turn conjoint utilities into scenario-based preference shares without calling them market-share forecasts.
The Short Version
Turn conjoint utilities into scenario-based preference shares without calling them market-share forecasts. A practical way to begin is to define a specific competitive scenario, then construct products only from tested attribute levels. Finish by making sure you label results as model-based preference shares rather than observed market share. The full walkthrough below explains each part in order.
Is This Guide for You?
Analysts comparing hypothetical product configurations after a conjoint study.
Follow These Steps
Work through these 6 steps at your own pace. The wording is intentionally practical, and you can return to the checklist at the end when you are ready to review your work.
- Define a specific competitive scenario.
- Construct products only from tested attribute levels.
- Calculate each product's predicted utility under a documented choice rule.
- Convert utilities into preference shares for the scenario.
- Run sensitivity checks across plausible configurations and segments.
- Label results as model-based preference shares rather than observed market share.
What This Helps You Accomplish
Preference shares depend on the products included, the choice model, and the surveyed population. Distribution, awareness, availability, and real prices also determine market outcomes.
What a Good Result Looks Like
A preference-share simulation compares specified alternatives under stated assumptions. It is useful for exploring scenarios, but it is not observed market share because distribution, awareness, availability, competition, and real purchasing behavior remain outside the survey.
Example: compare three planned packages
Enter a basic $25 email-support package, a $50 live-chat package, and a $75 phone-support package into the simulator. The resulting shares describe how the fitted preference model divides choices among those three scenarios. Adding or removing a competitor can change every share, so the scenario set must always accompany the result.
Decisions to Make Before You Begin
- Choose realistic alternatives and a clearly defined audience.
- State the choice rule used by the simulator.
- Include all relevant competitors or explain omissions.
- Run sensitivity checks across plausible specifications and segments.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Labeling simulated preference as forecast revenue or market share.
- Reporting shares without listing the compared alternatives.
- Assuming aggregate effects describe each individual's choices.
Your Practical Next Step
Build one conservative, one expected, and one aggressive scenario. Report the inputs beside the outputs so another reader can reproduce the comparison.
A Quick Confidence Check
- Document the scenario.
- Use tested levels.
- State the choice rule.
- Run sensitivity checks.
- Do not label preference share as market share.
Common Questions
Can I use this guide if I am new to this?
Yes. Analysts comparing hypothetical product configurations after a conjoint study. Follow the steps in order, start with a small test, and use the final checklist before you field or report anything important.
What is the simplest way to get started?
Begin by define a specific competitive scenario. Next, construct products only from tested attribute levels. You do not need to perfect every setting before running a small preview or pilot.
How do I know when I am ready?
Use the confidence check above. In particular: Document the scenario. Use tested levels. State the choice rule. Run sensitivity checks. When the decision is consequential, keep your study documentation and ask a qualified colleague or methods reviewer to examine the design as well.
Related Guides
Research artifact: sample data, codebook, and scriptsResearch Pathways
Product names and fielding platforms mentioned in this guide belong to their respective owners. Conjoint Survey is an independent academic research tool and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by those services.